Editor’s note: The complete race predictions were updated Sunday morning following Friday practice and Saturday qualifying.
On Sunday, the Cup Series debuts at Iowa Speedway with the ethanol-powered Iowa Corn 350 (7 p.m. ET, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), with Kyle Larson expected to make his way through the field in his quest for his fourth victory of the year.
Related: Build Your Fantasy Live Roster | Weekend Plans Despite missing the Coca-Cola 600, Larson reclaimed the championship lead with a win at Sonoma last Sunday and now leads Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott by 14 points.
It’s hard to find a track on the calendar that’s outside Larson’s purse, but there wasn’t much data to prove it at Iowa Speedway until this weekend, when he won the Busch Light Pole Award.
To date, Larson has made four starts at the 1.44-km oval in Xfinity, finishing inside the top five twice and inside the top 10 twice.
Larson participated in Goodyear’s tire test in Iowa in May, which gave him a small success before the weekend. Overall, short-course races, Larson has finished 6th or better in 9 of the last 10 races, including two wins at Martinsville and Richmond last year.
To top it off, Larson is also the youngest Father’s Day winner (2021 at Nashville). Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin, Elliott, 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick (up from 8th) and RFK Racing’s Brad Keselowski round out Larson’s predictions. William Byron, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell (up from 3rd), Ryan Blaney and Ross Chastain round out the predicted top 10.
Blaney and Chastain finished in the top 10 after training and qualifying, while Bubba Wallace and Martin Truex Jr. dropped out. With everyone in the Cup garage driving the Next Generation Car for the first time at Iowa Speedway, Sunday night’s race promises to be an exciting one.
Other drivers to watch: Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is this season’s short track champion. He’s won at Bristol and Richmond and has finished in the top three in five of the past six short track races.
Despite being one of the few drivers without Iowa Speedway experience, it wouldn’t be surprising if he responds to Larson’s win at Sonoma with a win of his own. Brad Keselowski: The 2012 champion has been on a roll this season. Keselowski always looks like a winner and if his Xfinity stats at Iowa are any indication, he should be at the front this weekend. Keselowski has three wins, six top-five finishes and seven top-10 finishes in seven starts at this track.
He also participated in a Goodyear tire test after the track was repaved. Joey Logano: Someone said new song? Enter Joey Logano.
The two-time champion seems to excel on his debut tracks, winning the first races at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum and World Wide Technology Raceway. Logano’s best performance this season was a second-place finish at Richmond.
Kyle Busch: Busch has made two starts in Xfinity at Iowa, winning once and coming second once. It’s also been 37 races since Busch’s last win (the longest winning streak of his career), so Rowdy could be heading to Victory Lane soon. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Like Keselowski, Stenhouse also has three Xfinity wins at the Hawkeye State short track, and with two drivers outside the top 16 already with wins (Daniel Suarez and Austin Cindric), Stenhouse could still be in the playoff picture for the rest of the season.
Mix it up. Race Insights Predictions for the Iowa Corn 350 with Ethanol Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formulas take into account the current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit crew data to determine projected winners and complete race results.
Finish
Car Number
Driver
1
5
Kyle Larson
2
11
Denny Hamlin
3
9
Chase Elliott
4
45
Tyler Reddick
5
6
Brad Keselowski
6
24
William Byron
7
22
Joey Logano
8
20
Christopher Bell
9
12
Ryan Blaney
10
1
Ross Chastain
11
23
Bubba Wallace
12
19
Martin Truex Jr.
13
14
Chase Briscoe
14
8
Kyle Busch
15
17
Chris Buescher
16
48
Alex Bowman
17
4
Josh Berry
18
54
Ty Gibbs
19
99
Daniel Suárez
20
34
Michael McDowell
21
16
AJ Allmendinger
22
41
Ryan Preece
23
10
Noah Gragson
24
2
Austin Cindric
25
47
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
26
77
Carson Hocevar
27
38
Todd Gilliland
28
43
Erik Jones
29
7
Corey LaJoie
30
51
Justin Haley
31
3
Austin Dillon
32
42
John H. Nemechek
33
21
Harrison Burton
34
31
Daniel Hemric
35
71
Zane Smith
36
15
Kaz Grala
37
66
David Starr
