After salvaging a 24th-place finish at Atlanta, Denny Hamlin painfully admitted, “Tried to avoid wrecks all day and just got in the last one.” This statement encapsulates the disappointment Hamlin felt after a long day of strategic but ultimately ineffective racing. Hamlin, who boasts nine career wins on superspeedways like Daytona and Talladega, is often considered one of the best in the business on these types of tracks. Alongside Joey Logano, he has built a reputation as one of the top superspeedway drivers in NASCAR. However, despite their respective skills, both Hamlin and Logano have been ranked among the worst playoff drivers on drafting tracks during the 2024 season. In Atlanta, the contrast between their strategies became strikingly apparent, and the results were worlds apart. While Hamlin played it safe, Logano took daring risks—and that risk-taking ultimately paid off, allowing Logano to outshine Hamlin by a significant margin.
The stark difference in their outcomes wasn’t merely a matter of luck but could be attributed to their mindsets going into the race. While Logano opted for a more aggressive approach, Hamlin decided to err on the side of caution. Unfortunately for Hamlin, this conservative strategy was not enough to see him through, and the mid-race radio chatter revealed his growing frustration and concern as the race progressed.
Hamlin, a three-time Daytona 500 winner, was no stranger to this type of race strategy. Over the years, he had seen drivers win at tracks like Daytona and Talladega by laying back, letting the chaos unfold in front of them, and capitalizing on late-race wrecks to climb through the ranks. This has been a long-standing strategy at Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR), with even legends like Tony Stewart and Bobby Labonte employing a half-throttle tandem style to navigate superspeedways successfully. However, this time, luck did not favor Hamlin. At the Quaker State 400 in Atlanta, drivers were particularly cautious, leading to fewer wrecks and fewer opportunities for Hamlin to capitalize on his strategy.
Speaking about his plan for the race, Hamlin said, “I did what I wanted to do, and that was lay in the back most of the race and try to see what attrition came about.” While this might have seemed like a sound approach at the time, Hamlin quickly realized that the race was unfolding differently than expected. Early in the race, after Kyle Larson bizarrely shot across the track and slammed into the wall, Hamlin began to feel that something was off. This sense of unease was evident when he radioed his crew chief, Chris Gabehart, expressing his concerns: “I don’t like it, Chris. I think they’re gonna wreck.”
This was just the beginning of the issues Hamlin and his team faced. Mechanical problems were not limited to Hamlin’s car; Larson’s teammate at Hendrick Motorsports, Chase Elliott, also struggled with handling issues. At one point, Elliott slid into Austin Cindric during a pit stop, which led to him being sandwiched between Corey LaJoie and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. But things worsened for Elliott as the race progressed—he eventually lost control again, and this time, Hamlin got caught up in the chaos.
As the race moved into its final stage, Hamlin’s frustration became even more apparent. He radioed Gabehart once more, this time to voice concerns about his car’s handling: “Chris, I’m loose as f-ck. I just think it’s not worth it right now.” Gabehart, with a sigh, responded simply: “You’re driving, not me.”
This exchange captured the growing tension and uncertainty that had plagued Hamlin throughout the race. Eventually, Elliott’s unintended bump into Ross Chastain triggered a wreck that collected Hamlin and several others. In the end, Hamlin’s conservative approach to avoid the wrecks in hopes of securing 20 points didn’t work out. Meanwhile, Joey Logano’s aggressive push to the front paid off, handing him his first playoff win of the season. Hamlin’s strategy, which had seemed prudent in theory, ultimately backfired, leaving him with a disappointing result at a crucial time.
Unfortunately for Hamlin, this isn’t the first time his playoff strategies have faltered. As history shows, Hamlin has a tendency to stumble at critical moments, especially during the playoffs when the pressure is at its peak.
In fact, Hamlin has developed something of a reputation for making costly mistakes at the most inopportune times. Though it’s not yet the end of the year, the regular season has concluded, and Hamlin’s struggles are becoming more apparent as the playoffs progress. Back in 2019, the No. 11 JGR team was on fire, and Hamlin had one of the best seasons of his career. He kicked off the year with an emotional win at the Daytona 500, and over the course of the season, he racked up six Cup wins, which was a remarkable achievement alongside then-rookie crew chief Chris Gabehart.
However, just when it seemed like Hamlin was poised to finally claim his long-awaited Cup Series championship, a small but critical mistake cost him everything. During the championship race, Gabehart made an aggressive aerodynamic call by placing a slab of black tape on Hamlin’s car’s grille. This move was meant to improve the car’s performance, but instead, it caused the car to overheat. As a result, Hamlin was forced to make an unscheduled pit stop, which caused him to drop from third to 19th in the standings.
After the race, a dejected Hamlin reflected on what had gone wrong, saying, “I really just wanted a chance to go after them after that pit stop. But with the overheating, I couldn’t. I was going to blow up. I had to make the right call and try and unlap ourselves. Try for a caution. Try for a miracle.” Even Gabehart acknowledged their mistake, noting, “We beat ourselves right here, just trying to get too much because that’s what you do in a championship race. We were just trying to pull off a really difficult play and didn’t get it done.”
This incident from 2019 highlights the ongoing struggles Hamlin and his team have faced during high-pressure playoff situations. Despite being one of the top drivers in the sport, Hamlin has repeatedly fallen short of securing a championship due to mistakes made when the stakes are highest. Now, as the 2024 playoffs continue, Hamlin and his team will need to be more meticulous in their approach to avoid repeating the same costly errors.
The pressure is mounting for Hamlin, and with each race, the margin for error becomes smaller. He will need to learn from his past mistakes and approach the remainder of the playoffs with a more calculated and precise strategy if he hopes to finally overcome the obstacles that have stood in his way for so long.
