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With the playoffs on the horizon, NASCAR turned to its race simulation system to predict which of the 16 drivers in contention might clinch this year’s championship. The analysis pointed to Kyle Larson of Hendrick Motorsports as the frontrunner. But how exactly does this simulation work?
The system evaluates each driver’s performance both overall and on specific tracks, monitoring their finishing positions in postseason races. It then runs these statistics through 10,000 simulations to assess the likelihood of each playoff contender progressing through the rounds and ultimately securing the championship.
According to the simulation, Kyle Larson boasts a 97.1 percent chance of moving past the Round of 16, which kicks off at Atlanta Motor Speedway this Sunday and concludes at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 21. His odds drop slightly to 90.4 percent for advancing from the Round of 12, and he has a 72.8 percent chance of reaching the Championship 4. The simulation also suggests a 22.3 percent probability that Larson could capture his second NASCAR title.
In the first three weeks of September, Larson faces three crucial tracks: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Watkins Glen International, and Bristol Motor Speedway. At Atlanta, he has made 13 starts, achieving two top 10 finishes and two second-place results, while leading a total of 440 laps on the 1.540-mile quad oval.
At Watkins Glen, affectionately known as ‘The Glen’, Larson has secured two victories (2021, 2022), along with two top 10 finishes (2018, 2019) and a top 5 finish (2014). Finally, at Bristol Motor Speedway, he has notched five top 10 finishes, three top 5s, and a win in 2021.
Kyle Larson dismisses the significance of point advantages in the playoffs.
As the top seed heading into this year’s playoff showdown, Kyle Larson boasts an impressive record with four race victories, ten stage wins, and a second-place finish in the regular season standings. He has accumulated 40 playoff points and enjoys a 35-point lead over the provisional Round of 12 cutline. Despite this, the 2021 Cup Series champion recently expressed that having a point advantage isn’t everything when it comes to the playoffs.
“I really don’t pay much attention to the odds,” Larson stated, according to tobychristie.com. “Honestly, I don’t. NASCAR, especially in the Next Gen era, is unpredictable. There’s so much inconsistency that you can quickly find yourself in a tough spot. Whether you have a 35 or 40-point lead over the cutline doesn’t really matter.”
“Sure, having the bonus points and playoff points we’ve earned during the regular season is beneficial. But it doesn’t guarantee success. You still need to avoid trouble, especially in consecutive weeks, and just hope to make it through,” he elaborated.
Tickets for the race on Sunday can be purchased through the official Atlanta Motor Speedway website. Fans can catch the 260-lap event live on USA and NBC Sports, with radio updates available on PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.