As the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series nears, Denny Hamlin finds himself at the center of speculation. He started the 2024 season impressively, securing three wins in the first eleven races. However, his performance declined as the season progressed, raising doubts about his future in the sport. Now, with major changes on the horizon, Hamlin faces a challenging road ahead.
Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) is undergoing significant shifts, with Hamlin losing his longtime sponsor FedEx after two decades. Although JGR has brought in new sponsors like King’s Hawaiian and National Debt Relief, the departure of a key backer signals uncertainty. Additionally, Hamlin will have a new crew chief, Chris Gayle, replacing Chris Gabehart, who will move into a different role. These adjustments raise questions about Hamlin’s ability to remain competitive at the highest level.
NASCAR veteran Kevin Harvick has voiced his doubts about Hamlin’s championship hopes. Speaking on his Happy Hours podcast, Harvick did not mince words, stating that he does not believe Hamlin will ever win a Cup Series title. He pointed out that, despite years of effort, Hamlin has fallen short, and with his best opportunities behind him, he may not have enough time to rebuild and contend again.
Harvick also compared Hamlin’s situation to Kyle Busch’s struggles at JGR. Busch, a two-time champion, saw his tenure at JGR end after losing his primary sponsor, M&M’s, in 2022. With no suitable replacement, he moved to Richard Childress Racing in 2023 but has since struggled, even going winless in the 2024 season. Harvick speculated that Hamlin could follow a similar trajectory if things do not improve at JGR. However, unlike Busch, Hamlin has the safety net of 23XI Racing, the team he co-owns with Michael Jordan, which could serve as a fallback option.
Adding to the off-track drama, Hamlin has strongly criticized NASCAR’s new Open Exemption Provisional rule, which allows a 41st driver to join a race under special circumstances. Hamlin called the rule “desperate,” arguing that it undermines the integrity of NASCAR’s competition.
With mounting scrutiny, sponsorship concerns, and performance expectations, the 2025 season could be a defining moment for Hamlin. Whether he rises to the occasion or struggles to keep up remains to be seen, but one thing is certain—the pressure has never been higher.
