As NASCAR’s season nears its final races, the question remains: does momentum really play a role in determining champions in the Next-Gen era? With only three races left, it’s challenging to single out one team that stands as an unstoppable force. While drivers like Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell have shown promise, neither has locked in a spot in the championship race yet. Meanwhile, Joey Logano, who had been nearly counted out after the Roval, has surged back into contention and secured a place in his sixth championship race.
For some teams, the path to victory has been anything but straightforward. The #22 team, for instance, faced a difficult playoff stretch and was saved by Alex Bowman’s disqualification, which shifted the standings in Logano’s favor. Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin and his #11 team, along with six other contenders, feel the mounting pressure to deliver top performances at Homestead and Martinsville. Yet, for Hamlin’s crew chief, Chris Gabehart, the concept of momentum seems to fall flat in the chaos of the current playoff system.
Reflecting on the playoff structure, Gabehart described this year as a “wild ride,” noting the unpredictability of playoff outcomes. Although Hamlin’s performance has recently stabilized with top-10 finishes, his early playoff results were inconsistent. His last five races have shown improvement, though a P14 finish at the Roval and pit-stop errors in Las Vegas have made the journey challenging. Still, Hamlin’s recent progress suggests he could be in contention for a win at Homestead, a traditional mile-and-a-half track where his skills often shine.
Gabehart, however, is quick to caution against relying on momentum, calling out NASCAR’s playoff format for creating a turbulent experience. He points to Logano’s unexpected return to contention as proof that momentum is not a steady factor. “Just eight days ago, they were out,” Gabehart said, adding that the playoff’s “joker tracks” make it tough to rely on any consistent advantage.
Despite the improvements, the reality for the #11 team is complex. Vegas wasn’t a standout race for Hamlin, and strategic moves were required just to secure a top-10 finish. Looking ahead, however, Hamlin has reason for optimism. Both Homestead and Martinsville have been historically strong tracks for him, providing the chance to shake off past disappointments.
With three career wins at Homestead, Hamlin aims to reclaim his success there, though all wins predate the Gen 7 car. Martinsville also offers an opportunity if he finds himself in a must-win situation. In Gabehart’s words, what truly matters is a team’s experience and ability to thrive under playoff pressure. As the championship nears, Hamlin will need every ounce of that experience to secure his long-awaited title.
