Will Denny Hamlin Finally Secure the Bill France Cup in 2024?
The odds are starting to stack against him. Hamlin has been plagued with a series of unfortunate events that make the prospect of his name gracing the Bill France Cup less likely with each passing race. Just last weekend in Atlanta, his #11 Toyota Camry XSE faced powertrain troubles that forced him to start at the back of the field. Even after fighting his way back, fate dealt another blow when Hamlin found himself involved in a last-lap wreck—ironic since he was aiming to benefit from a similar mishap.
As the focus shifts to Watkins Glen this Sunday, where the eleven-turn course is known for its technical challenges, Hamlin will roll off in 22nd place, a slight improvement from his Atlanta finish. However, his recent struggles persist. During practice, a misjudgment on Turn 1 resulted in an embarrassing spin-out. This string of bad luck feels all too unnatural, and Hamlin himself seems increasingly frustrated with how things are unfolding.
Can Hamlin Make the Playoff Cut After the Atlanta Debacle?
For those unaware, the #11 team teeters dangerously close to the playoff cutline, just two points above the Round of 12 threshold. Making matters worse, Ty Gibbs’ #54 team is sitting right on the bubble as the playoffs shift to Watkins Glen. Hamlin’s disappointing performance at the playoff opener in Atlanta certainly didn’t help his situation, but a significant setback came earlier when an engine infraction led to a 75-point penalty in August. Instead of entering the playoffs in a stronger position, the #11 crew had to fight their way in as the sixth seed.
And that’s not the only storm cloud looming over Hamlin. His 23XI Racing team, which he co-owns with basketball legend Michael Jordan, faces an uncertain future. Their ownership group is currently in a deadlock with NASCAR over the updated charter agreement, with negotiations still ongoing. All of this culminated in FOX Sports’ Bob Pockrass asking Hamlin a pointed question: “With the penalty, charter drama, and Atlanta, do you feel like this is slipping away?”
Despite the chaos, Hamlin remains composed, at least outwardly. “No, not really,” he said. “I don’t love where I’m at, but that’s a given.” He believes that as long as he does his best in the upcoming races, things will work themselves out. “If they don’t, they don’t. My number one goal is to get to the win tunnel. I’ve got plenty of races left to do that, and I’m aiming to win at least two during the playoffs.”
However, Hamlin’s concluding remarks underscore just how high the stakes are. “Hopefully those wins will count toward something when I get them.” If Hamlin falls short again at Watkins Glen, he could drop below the 12-driver cutline, leaving him with only the Bristol Night Race to salvage his playoff chances.
Watkins Glen might offer a glimmer of hope for Hamlin, as it’s one of the road courses where he’s traditionally performed well. However, this year Goodyear is introducing a new tire to add another layer of unpredictability to the already challenging 2.45-mile circuit. Hamlin shared his thoughts on this development, making it clear that the new tire is a critical factor in determining success at the Glen.
New Tires, Old Problems, and the “X Factor” Ahead
According to Hamlin, the new tire could be a game-changer. “This will be the X factor,” he explained, “because if it wears out as quickly as people say, you’re going to have one shot. If you have to go out and re-run again, the lap times are likely to be so far off.”
Goodyear’s Racing Director, Greg Stucker, has confirmed that these new tires, labeled D-5232, are expected to lose about three seconds per lap over a long run, which aligns with Hamlin’s concerns. In his podcast, Actions Detrimental, Hamlin emphasized, “Tires will be a big thing at the next two tracks.”
As the playoffs continue, the unpredictable nature of the second Round of 16 race looms large. Yet, Hamlin has proven time and again that he’s capable of overcoming adversity. In fact, Hamlin has won at Bristol twice before, including earlier this year under similarly challenging conditions. During the March race, the #11 team overcame tire issues to secure their first win of the 2024 season, a testament to Hamlin’s resilience.
Though Hamlin’s season has been far from smooth, his past successes at Watkins Glen and Bristol suggest it would be unwise to count him out entirely. “If I can just get through this race and keep my head above water heading into Bristol, I’m confident we’ll perform well there,” he said.
But confidence may not be enough. If Hamlin doesn’t perform well in the upcoming races, his #11 team could fail to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs for only the second time since he took the wheel.
