The NASCAR Playoffs roll into Bristol Motor Speedway this Saturday for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, where the pressure is on as the field of 16 playoff contenders gets cut down to 12. With 500 laps around the tight 0.533-mile short track, the action is bound to be intense. The green flag drops at 7:30 p.m. ET, marking the finale of the Round of 16, and many of the sport’s top names will be looking to secure their place in the next round.
Denny Hamlin, who’s been dominant at Bristol with wins in the last two races, enters as the odds-on favorite at 4-1. But he’s not the only driver to watch. Kyle Larson, a fierce competitor with 9-2 odds, is another top contender, while Christopher Bell (6-1), Ty Gibbs (8-1), and Brad Keselowski (9-1) are all strong threats to make an impact in this pivotal race.
For those looking to lock in their predictions or fine-tune their DFS lineups on platforms like DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, or Underdog Fantasy, it’s worth checking out the latest analysis from SportsLine’s predictive model. Developed by DFS expert and data engineer Mike McClure, this model simulates each race 10,000 times, factoring in recent performance and track history to deliver reliable projections. Since its inception, the model has been on point, predicting 18 race winners, including several big upsets this season. Earlier this year, it nailed Kyle Larson’s win in Las Vegas (21-5 odds) and correctly called Denny Hamlin’s triumphs at both Bristol and Richmond.
Heading into Saturday’s race, the model is high on Chase Elliott, who’s currently a longshot at 18-1. While Elliott sits comfortably in seventh place in the standings with a 30-point cushion, his record at Bristol makes him a driver to keep an eye on. With eight top-10 finishes in 14 starts at this track, including a runner-up finish in the past six years, Elliott could surprise everyone with a strong performance.
Conversely, Christopher Bell, despite being the top-ranked driver heading into Bristol and a Vegas favorite, is projected to struggle. The model suggests that Bell may miss out on a top-five finish, likely because his 56-point lead nearly guarantees his advancement to the next round. With his playoff spot secure, Bell may not need to push as hard, leaving the spotlight on his teammates Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr., both of whom are fighting to stay above the cut line.
As the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs heat up, all eyes will be on Bristol to see who survives the chaos and punches their ticket to the next round.
