As the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs heat up, only one race remains before the Championship 4 showdown at Phoenix Raceway. With just two spots left to fill, the pressure is intense for the remaining drivers as they head into the high-stakes Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. While favorites like Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick have already secured their positions, three other contenders find themselves as underdogs, with longer odds yet plenty of potential to pull off a last-minute victory. For fans and bettors alike, this weekend could bring big surprises.
The odds reveal some fascinating insights. Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell leads in points, with Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron close behind and holding a slim seven-point lead over his teammate, Kyle Larson, just above the cut line. Not surprisingly, Logano, Reddick, and Bell are currently the favorites, each listed at +340 to take home the 2024 championship. Byron and Larson follow, reflecting their critical points battle, at +600 and +750, respectively. But then, there are the three wildcards—Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott—each with significant gaps to close if they want a spot in the final four.
Hamlin, Blaney, and Elliott are the longshots, but they’ve proven capable of shining under pressure. Hamlin, a five-time winner at Martinsville, sits 18 points below the cut line and is listed at +2200. Blaney, a past Martinsville winner, is 38 points back and likely needs a win to advance, with odds at +2500. Elliott, also in a must-win scenario at 43 points below the line, comes in at +4000. Each driver brings unique strengths and a history of success on this track, making them potential dark horses this weekend.
Martinsville has historically favored each of these three, adding intrigue to their outsider status. Blaney, who clinched his Championship 4 spot with a win here last year, carried similarly long odds before taking the title. Hamlin and Elliott, both familiar with victory at the “Paperclip,” bring the resilience and skill that make them viable contenders.
In fact, all three drivers rank among the top four for odds to win Sunday’s race itself. Hamlin, co-favored with Larson at +500, is poised for a strong showing, while Blaney follows closely at +550. Elliott, after a solid third-place finish here in April, comes in at +850. If any of these three manages to clinch the win, they’ll not only book their place at Phoenix but also shake up the odds—just as fans love to see in the final stretch of the season.
